Tag Archives: Bull Market

The Canadian Marijuana Sector Is The Next Big Thing

Gecko Research, Jan 4, 2017

There is an ongoing bull market that hasn’t been internationally recognized yet and that’s investing in the North American marijuana sector. One really needs to understand that there is one going on south of the border and another one north of the border. They are two completely seperate bull markets and at very different stages as well. One we love and one we wouldn’t touch with a ten-foot pole.

The U.S. marijuana sector is not only mature, it’s in quite a bad shape from an investor’s standpoint. The U.S. cannabis sector is years ahead of the Canadian and has at this stage gone so far as to attract scam artists. On the OTC alone there are now almost 400 companies that call themselves cannabis stocks. These are mostly penny stocks with no revenue or any prospects thereof. Investors that don’t suffer from a gambling habit should stay away.

In comparison, Canadadian listed marijuana producers are easy to keep track on as they are just a little more than a handfull. We believe that the marijuana sector in Canada is setting itself up to become the next big thing everybody wants to get in on. Sure, it hasn’t gone unnoticed that the sector has done very well this year and is currently working itself through a well-needed consolidation, but we think the bigger moves are yet to come as we are still in the early days.

We have started to look more closely into the sector and there are some quality companies out there. But what is very striking is the amount of crappy companies overwhelming this sector. For those of you interested to invest in marijuana, we urge you to be very picky and only go for the really high quality names.

Marijuana for recreational use in Canada is getting more and more acceptance and support. It looks like the changes in the laws will be put in motion to make it legal for anyone over 18 years of age to use. As most of you already understand, it doesn’t necessarily take for laws to have passed, it’s enough if people expect it to happen to get a huge amount of interest and investment dollars to get the bull market going at full speed.

medical_cannabis


Background

In 1923 marijuana was prohibited in Canada and during the next 80 years, public opinion supported the unlegal approach to marijuana. Today we have a totally different situation both in Canada and around the world. More Canadians now prefer softer marijuana laws and according to a poll made by Globe and Mail, 68% of the Canadians now consider legalization of recreational marijuana to be a reasonable approach.

Justin Trudeau – The Road To Legalization
A year ago Justin Trudeau was elected Prime Minister in Canada after a record election of the Liberty Party. One of Trudeau’s first proclamations in office was the announcement that a federal-provincial-territorial process was being created to discuss a suitable process for the legalization of marijuana possession for recreational purposes.

This decision is driven by the wish to reduce access for young Canadians, remove cash flow from reaching the criminal sphere and to bring down the amount of taxpayer money used to enforce marijuana laws.

Trudeau first publicly expressed an interest in the legalization of marijuana back in the summer of 2013 when he said:

“I’m actually not in favor of decriminalizing cannabis. I’m in favor of legalizing it. Tax it, regulate. It’s one of the only ways to keep it out of the hands of our kids because the current war on drugs, the current model is not working. We have to use evidence and science to make sure we’re moving forward on that.” (source)

canada_cannabis


Marijuana in Canada

The Canadian marijuana sector today is worth approximately C$100M and it is growing rapidly. Patient growth is over 10% month-over-month (!) which means that in one year’s time Canada will have 360,000 registered patients. For you to better comprehend the significance, Health Canada has estimated that the market for medical marijuana, by 2024, could reach over 450,000 patients and be worth over $1.3 Billion. By the look of things, Health Canada is wrong by at least 6 years. The point we are making here is that the growth is much stronger than ever anticipated.

When legalization for recreational use becomes a reality, all numbers above becomes insignificant from an investor’s perspective. The marijuana sector in Canada will rapidly increase in size and many forecasts available today point to the range of a C$7-10B market. To put this number in context, Canadians spent C$8.7B on beer in 2014. We know we are still in early days when we have identified a sector that will grow from $100m to a multi-billion industry almost overnight.

With some of Canada´s most acknowledged businesses and entrepreneurs openly indicating their interest in the medical marijuana sector we guess the stigma that has surrounded cannabis for many years is starting to erode.

marijuana_sector_growth
Investors need to be picky and should look to invest in those companies that will become large and robust. In the next 3-6 months, we want to invest in newly created enterprises with a solid business plan, great management and access to capital. We are looking to invest in just a few companies and get positioned for what we believe will be one of the best performing sectors in 2017-2018.

We believe that the companies of higher quality that are formed today will become majors in this sector. These are the companies that will over time offer best returns at the lowest risk.

The sector will cleanse itself over time as the strong companies will likely consolidate the sector as a whole while the weaker low quality companies will die and disappear. That’s why we are keen on identifying the higher quality new start-ups now and ride them as they grow towards becoming majors in the most interesting bull markets we have seen in a long time.

———————————————————————————————————-

We have identified such a company which in fact is just about to go public, Emblem Corp.. There’s little doubt in our mind that Emblem will become one of the leading marijuana producers in Canada and we could easily see them reaching north of $1B Mcap within 24 months. We expect them to start trading somewhere around a C$250-300M Mcap.

Emblem Corp. (TSX-V: EMC)

Let’s walk you through the main points on what we believe will be one of the strongest entries by a Canadian marijuana company during 2016. On November 16th, Emblem announced the closing of one of the largest IPO’s (Initial Public Offering) ever done by a Canadian marijuana company. Emblem looks to commence trading on Friday December 9th on the Canadian Venture exchange, ticker symbol ‘EMC’.

Share Structure And Cash
The IPO was priced at $1.15/sh + 1/2 a warrant which with Emblem’s earlier financings gives Emblem a fully diluted share structure of ~111m shares (we might be off a little bit but we are close enough). That 111m shares includes warrants and stock options and when all of those are exercised it will bring in another ~C$36m in cash adding to the ~C$30m post-IPO cash position.

Access To Money
Simply a non-issue. In general, marijuana is becoming such a strong sector and this is recognized by the brokers and financial institutions. More importantly, which we will try to describe, is the quality of Emblem itself. When we started looking at the sector a few months ago, we found a couple of decent companies, but none of them convinced us as much as Emblem has.

We mentioned that the size of the IPO is C$23.7m but readers should be aware of the enormously big interest in Emblem. The book was nearly two and a half times oversubscribed and that is as good of a “quality approval” as anything. Emblem could have easily raised $55-60M if they had wanted to.

People
Valuating a company is so much more than just comparing numbers to its peer group. Over the years we have learned the hard and expensive way that who is running the business is definitely one of the most important things to look at before investing.

Producing, selling and distributing marijuana is not so much different from selling aspirin or any other pharmaceutical drug. We can’t really see a better mix of people running Emblem than this:

EMC_management_teamClick to open in new window

 

To see founders, management and employees invest their own hard earned money into Emblem is refreshing and it has made our investment decision so much easier. Six million dollars isn’t small money and it sends a clear message that they believe in what they are creating, one of the best marijuana companies in Canada. To see the people handling our money also having “skin in the game” is important to us and it should be important to you too.

Emblem Gets It – Three Legs To Stand On
In our mind, there are two approaches to the marijuana business, either you are an LP focusing only on production and wholesale or you take the same route Emblem has where they control everything from start to finish. Emblem has created three legs in its business:
1) Production
Phase 1 is already producing and Phase 2 will take Emblem to a total production capacity of 2,100 kg (Q2 -17). Phase 3 is already financed and will take total production to a rate of 11,600 kg (Q4 -17). Phase 4 could start producing in Q2 -18 and would bring Emblem’s total capacity to 21,100 kg. The timing for planned production expansions vs. when recreational marijuana consumption becomes legal might become nothing less than perfect for Emblem.

2) Pharmaceutical
This division is led by John H. Stewart, former President & CEO of Purdue Pharma Canada (1991-2006) and Purdue Pharma U.S. (2007-2013), one of the largest privately held pharmaceutical companies in the world. Marijuana is so much more than just smoking, the market segment for oils, gel caps, sprays, trans-dermal patches and pills is a huge potential revenue maker. Many of these products will actually be produced from parts of the plants that would otherwise have no other use, kind of like monetizing the by-products to use mining terminology.

3) Education
What’s important for every LP out there is to get patients to buy their product. Once a patient is registered they pretty much stay loyal to that LP. One way is to open up medical marijuana clinics which require large investments. Emblem’s approach is a much cheaper and cost effective way to acquire customers. Emblem establishes education centers within already existing medical clinics (1) as well as within stand-alone medical cannabis clinics (2).

Profit Margins
Production – Flowers
Emblem is not your average producer/seller, instead Emblem will deliver medical-grade marijuana from their state of the art production facility which we are convinced over time will reward the company with a premium for their product. But already today Emblem will enjoy huge margins on their production and sales (see chart below).

Starting up a new business is capital intensive but Emblem is fully financed through the phase 3 expansion. Most listed marijuana companies in Emblem’s peer group have yet to reach profitability. Emblem’s goal and prediction is that they will deliver a net income in Q3 next year, just ~9 months from now.

tableClick to open in new window


Production – Oils

Producers are now able to monetize the entire cannabis plant, not just the dried flower. To produce these oil products require specialized pharmaceutical industry expertise which is exactly what Emblem has.

The flower margins are looking good, oil operating earnings are a dream as they are projected to reach 90%. Or put in another way, it would be like selling a gram equivalent for $15 that cost $1.50 to produce. Estimated oil revenues from the first 12 months are expected to be $2.9m.

tableClick to open in new window


Timing From An Investment Perspective

Supply and demand. Probable legalization in 2017. These two circumstances argue that we are long ways from bubble territory. At the same time we have seen Canadian marijuana stocks double in price in the last three months (after 12 months of consolidation). These facts only reinforce the need for investors to be diligent in their research before making an investment decision.

We feel we have been just that, diligent, and we have come to the conclusion that we are in early days of what will be one of the fastest growing sectors, all categories, in the coming years.

Valuation And Comparison To Peers
At $1.15, Emblem would have a fully diluted Mcap of 128 Mcad, but on a fully diluted basis this would also mean holding ~$66m in cash. It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to understand that this valuation is not where Emblem will start trading at.

Let’s look at some of the peer group companies and their fd Mcap as per Dec 7th (1):
* Mettrum – 342 Mcad
* Organigram – 366 Mcad
* Aphria – 582Mcad
* Aurora – 728 Mcad
* Canopy Growth – 1,240 Mcad (2)
(1) Cash positions not taken into consideration
(2) Canopy reached a 2,070m Mcap when ATH C$17.86/sh was reached on Nov 16th

It’s obviously not fair to just look at Mcap’s, all companies have different production and growth profile, cash position and so much more. But it gives you a feeling of where Emblem could start trading at. We suggest you download each company’s presentation just to get a feel for the numbers and compare those to Emblem’s ditto.

Canopy Growth is the first Canadian marijuana company to reach a Billion dollar valuation (currently $956M Mcap). If plans become a reality, Canopy will reach a production capacity of 24,300 kg in 2018 while Emblem’s plans will take them to 21,100 kg in the same timeframe. By that calculation one could argue that Emblem will reach a Billion dollar Mcap in the not too distant future. It’s still not a fair comparison to make as Canopy have come further along. But it gives us a feeling and an idea of where Emblem very well could end up.

Conclusion
At this stage and with a long term view, one can probably throw a dart and buy any marijuana stock out there and still do extremely well in the coming years. Some caution is justified though because in the short term, the Canadian Marijuana Index look toppy. Emblem does provide us with an advantage as it’s not yet publicly traded and has a lot of catching up to do. Canadian investors are yearning for more names to invest in and we feel Emblem will be the top pick in the sector for others as well.

Remember, buying a marijuana producer is not like buying an early stage mining exploration play where one drill hole decides if your investment will be a success or not. Marijuana producers will not only be in an environment where they enjoy great margins on their product, they also have a production growth factor almost unheard of to consider.

The marijuana companies will be in an environment where they enjoy great margins on their product. However, one must be extremely picky and only invest in the truly high quality companies, the rest should be ignored. Look for 1) a great business plan 2) the right people to execute that plan and 3) make sure that the company has access to future funding as costly financings equals heavy dilution to shareholders.

Emblem Corp. Investor Presentation
https://www.dropbox.com/s/giglqdsfdyhkqqc/EmblemCorp_Presentation_November2016.pdf?dl=0


Disclosures:

1) Gecko Research (“the Author”) is not a registered financial advisor and investors should seek professional advice before making any investment decision. Our research is independent and is based on our view of the company or sector based on publicly available information. Factual errors might still occur, and it is every reader’s obligation to do their own research and not to solely rely on information given by the Author. The article is our view about the stock and do not constitute advice to buy or sell shares in the companies we discuss or any other company. The Author’s mission is to provide transparent viewpoints on companies we believe provide good investment opportunities. Gecko Research is almost always invested in the companies we write about and thus one can assume that there is some bias within our investment ideas. Although we see ourselves as long term investors, we might buy and/or sell the stocks we write about at any time. In no event shall the Author be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein. In other words, make your own decisions and proceed at your own risk. Investing in junior companies is associated with very high risk as well as extreme volatility. For those of you who cannot deal with that kind of environment, we think you should perhaps look elsewhere for investment ideas. As Gecko Research might occasionally be reimbursed for costs while visiting project sites or arranging investor presentations, Gecko Research does not get reimbursed for the articles we write. To learn more about Gecko Research, sign up for our free newsletter.

John Rubino: Internal Bleeding, Cheap Tech, And Falling Angels

By John Rubino, Nov 30, 2015

Think of “market internals” as the blood pressure and insulin levels of the financial world. They operate below the surface, frequently unnoticed, but over time they have a big say in the health of the patient.

And right now they’re pointing to a heart attack.

Let’s start with junk bonds. These are loans to financially and/or operationally-weak companies that because of their weakness have to pay up to borrow. Such bonds have a risk/return profile that’s more akin to equities than to, say Treasury bonds, and they trade accordingly, rising and falling on the likelihood of default rather than their relative yield.

Recession means higher default rates for weak borrowers, so when the economy is slowing down or otherwise hitting a rough patch, the junk bond market is often where it registers first. Lately, junk has been tanking relative to stocks (chart created by Hussman Funds):

Stocks vs junk

Another widely-followed internal is the relationship between large-cap (i.e., relatively safe) stocks and riskier small caps. When large caps outperform small caps, it’s frequently a sign that the broader economy is weakening. Since September, that’s been happening too:

Large stocks vs small stocks

In general, when market leadership gets extremely narrow — that is, when only a few things are going up and everything else is either flat or falling — trouble ensues. During the late 1990s tech stock mania, for instance, the global economy ended up being supported by the US, whose economy was supported mostly by the NASDAQ, which was supported by just a handful of high-flying tech stocks. When those stocks finally cracked, they took the whole world down with them.

Now something similar is happening, thanks in large part to this cycle’s dominant tech firms, especially Apple. From CNBC:

The days of Apple’s amazing profits may be over

The S&P 500’s profit margin growth over the past five years has been driven largely by tech, and one name in particular: Apple. Unfortunately for the market and for Apple, the days of exceptional expansion may be over.That’s according to David Kostin of Goldman Sachs, who wrote in a note Monday to clients that he expects margins to remain flat at 9.1 percent for 2016 and 2017.

“Many of the drivers of margin expansion during the past few decades appear to be behind us,” Kostin wrote, listing former catalysts such as lower interest rates, lower taxes, a switch from manufacturing to services and technological innovations.

Since 2009, information technology has been responsible for about 48 percent of overall S&P 500 margin expansion. Apple alone has been responsible for 18 percent. [But that is about to change.] According to BK Asset Management’s Boris Schlossberg, Apple’s “lack of gusto” when it comes to profit margins is a result of unsatisfactory products, aside from the new iPhone.

“At this point, the watch is a bust, TV is a bust, the big iPad is not really flying off the shelves,” Schlossberg said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “I don’t see any other place where they’re going to be able to get the kind of margin expansion that they’ve been able to get for the last five years.”

And while Apple is up 7 percent for the year, Schlossberg said investors may be losing enthusiasm for the stock as well, at least compared with other tech outperformers this year.

To summarize, Apple will remain a great company but won’t continue to make more on each new dollar of sales. And this will cause investors to start treating it like a non-deity, revaluing its stock accordingly.

Meanwhile there’s a good chance that Apple will soon fall victim to a combination of falling tech prices and rising quality. Low-end consumer electronics are now adequate for most people, leaving the average consumer far less anxious to buy the best. Today there are 70-inch flat-screen TVs with a great picture to be had for $1,000 or less. Low-end smart phones, meanwhile, can now do most of what the best iPhone could do just a few years ago. A friend recently bought an $80 Windows-based phone that he describes as “okay…pretty good screen and it texts just fine.” He pays about $25 less per month than with his old, much more expensive phone, and is happy with the trade-off. Barring a new must-have iPhone killer app, this trade-off is only going to become more compelling going forward.

So what happens to a market that’s balanced precariously atop the shares of a handful of “must own” companies when those companies lose their halos? Historically, the previously-strong sectors join the rest in a broad sell-off.

This article is written by John Rubino of Dollarcollapse.com and with his kind permission, Gecko Research has been privileged to publish his work on our website. To find out more about Dollarcollapse.com, please visit:

dollar_collapse

The Fed Just Whacked Corporate Earnings

By John Rubino, Oct 29, 2015

The markets seemed to like what the Fed had to say yesterday, including the part about definitely, for sure, no kidding around this time raising interest rates in December. Especially elated were currency traders, who bid the US dollar up on the news.

Dollar index Oct 2015

Somewhat less enthusiastic, however, are the corporate executives who have seen their firms’ sales and earnings squeezed by a strong dollar of late. If rising rates make the dollar even stronger — as theory says they should — then presumably that makes corporate earnings even weaker. The media has been wrestling with various aspects of the dollar/corporate earnings/Fed policy connection for a while, and a consensus seems to be forming that there’s a conflict between aims and results in current monetary policy that another couple of months probably won’t resolve:

Strong Dollar Once Again Cutting Into Earnings

(Fox Business) – The strong U.S. dollar is once again emerging as a major theme this earnings season with Coca-Cola (KO) on Wednesday joining the ranks of other large multi-national companies that have seen their profits eroded overseas.

“I don’t think it’s going away anytime soon,” said Cliff Waldman, senior economist for the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI), a public policy and economics research organization in Arlington, Virginia.

Wal-Mart (WMT) and Costco (COST), the number one and number two U.S. retailers respectively, have also told investors that the strong dollar is eating into their earnings. Wal-Mart said earlier this month that a combination of the strong dollar and wage increases for many of its employees could cut 2015 revenue by $15 billion.

The strong dollar is not a new issue for U.S. corporations: throughout 2015 an array of multi-national U.S. giants including Microsoft (MSFT), Monsanto (MON) and Caterpillar (CAT) have blamed the strong dollar after reporting disappointing earnings. According to a study by FactSet, 70% of the companies had cited the strong dollar as a negative impact on their 1Q earnings of 2015.

On Wednesday, Coke reported that its sales in Asia-Pacific fell 11% in the third quarter, while sales in Latin America dropped 14% and sales in Europe fell 7%. The three markets account for one-third of Coca-Cola’s total revenue.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six global currencies, has risen by about 15% in the past 12 months.

The problem for these big multinationals occurs when their profits generated in weakened currencies such as the Euro or the Brazilian real are brought back to the U.S. and exchanged for the stronger U.S. dollar. The strong U.S. dollar also makes it more expensive to sell U.S. exports overseas, which benefits the international competitors of U.S. companies.

“It’s a very difficult situation for U.S. manufacturers,” said Waldman.

—————————-

Is a Firm US Dollar a Deterrent to a Fed Rate Liftoff?

(NASDAQ) – With the FOMC decision upon us, the market is already looking ahead to the December meeting and whether the central bank will keep a rate liftoff on the table. This will be important to all global markets after the ECB rejoined the currency war last week despite Draghi saying that fx is not a policy tool as his dovish comments sent the EUR tumbling. If you believe that forex is not a policy tool then you also believe in the tooth fairy.This puts the ball back in the Fed’s court as it has to weigh the impact on the dollar of any decision to start normalizing rates even if it tries to downplay the impact of the exchange rate.

Think about it. A rate liftoff or even expectations that it will start sooner rather than later would increase the value of the dollar. A firmer dollar, in turn, would weigh on commodities, especially crude oil. This would increase global concerns (e.g. emerging markets) and dampen US inflation expectations, making it harder for the Fed to achieve its 2% target. It would also increase concerns over an already struggling manufacturing sector where the dollar continues to be cited as a headwind on earnings.

So, the Fed is caught in the currency war after Draghi undercut the EUR and weakened it vs. the dollar, removing what would have been a cushion (i.e. weaker dollar) that would have made it easier for the Fed to consider a liftoff. Now, with the dollar back on a firmer footing, the Fed has less leeway to speed up liftoff without sending the currency higher as technicals have moved back in its favor.

Let’s assume that the Fed, after all its dithering, feels honor-bound to raise rates even in the face of slowing GDP growth and increasing global tensions. The dollar will almost certainly respond by rising or at least remaining stable at its current high level.

This in turn means that corporations will face continued pressure on sales and profits, and that the earnings recession will continue for at least another year before easy comparisons start making it possible to “grow” again.

What does that mean for the equity markets? Has there ever been an ongoing rise in share prices when corporate earnings were in a multi-year decline? That’s not rhetorical. Market historians, feel free to weigh in here.

This article is written by John Rubino of Dollarcollapse.com and with his kind permission, Gecko Research has been privileged to publish his work on our website. To find out more about Dollarcollapse.com, please visit:

dollar_collapse

Credit Suisse: There’s a Growing Threat of a Major Top in the S&P 500

Bloomberg, Sep 29, 2015

 

Another technical indicator flashes a warning signal.

Sorry bulls, technical analysis isn’t looking so hot for U.S. equities at the moment, and Credit Suisse is piling onto your pain.

In a new note, Ric Deverell and his team at Credit Suisse point to some technical levels worth watching, one of which could be a big signal that the top is in for the S&P 500-stock index. The index is currently trading around 1,890.

… We have been looking for the market to retest the spike low from August at 1,867, and then medium-term support at 1,820, the October 2014 low. With several key sectors now also falling to major support levels – notably industrials ‒ and looking vulnerable, we think the risk a major top may be established has risen sharply. Below 1,867 should keep the risk lower for price and “neckline” support at 1,832/20. Below here would mark the completion of an important top, turning the core trend bearish. If achieved, we would target 1,738/30 initially – the low for 2014 itself, and the 38.2% retracement of the 2011/2015 uptrend. Although we would expect this to hold at first, a break would be favoured in due course for 1,575/74 – the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2009/2015 bull market.

While we’ve been in a sideways market for a while, a major top, according to David Sneddon on the Credit Suisse team, would mean breaking below levels such as the October 2014 low of 1,820 in the S&P.

“We’ve obviously already had a significant fall in the stock market, triggered by the breaking down of the lows we saw earlier this year. The big question now is whether this is just a correction in a bull market,” he told us. In his mind, tumbling past 1,820 would signal that the market move could be something bigger.

On the plus side, a move above 1,953 could help ease selling pressure, the Swiss bank said.

Credit Suisse is far from the first (or only) market participant to highlight troubling technical analysis patterns recently. A Bloomberg report earlier this month pointed to a downward sloping “head and shoulders” pattern in the Dow Jones Industrial average, suggesting further selling pressure ahead.

A “Dow Theory sell signal,” one of the oldest technical indicators around, was also triggered in August when the DJIA and Dow Jones Transportation Average fell below the low of a previous selloff, set in October 2014.

Death Crosses, Hindenburg Omens, and other imaginatively named technical indicators have also made appearances recently.

Source

John Rubino: Whole Lotta Bear Markets Goin’ On

By John Rubino, Sep 28, 2015

The Dow and S&P 500 have fallen by around 10% since August, which in normal times would be hardly worth mentioning. But below the surface, in what used to be the market’s hottest sectors, much more serious damage is taking place.

Biotech, which had an epic bull market during the era of QE and the Affordable Care Act, had begun to crater even before Hillary Clinton proposed price controls for pharmaceuticals. Last week it went straight down.

Biotech ETF

Solar stocks had a quiet bull market that accompanied the technology’s emergence as heir apparent to fossil fuels. But now they’re quietly crashing:

Solar ETF

Junk bonds, which are essentially the equities of highly-leverage companies (because they turn back into equity when the bonds default and reluctant creditors are forced to take ownership of the junk issuers) have tanked in the past few months and are now far below their 50 and 200-day moving averages.

Junk bond ETF

One group that isn’t plunging is the gold miners. But that’s mainly because they had their crash while everything else was still rising, and are now at historically cheap levels. Here’s an ETF that tracks the junior gold mining stocks:

GDXJ Sept 2015

What does it mean when several high-flying sectors crash all at once? If history is still a reliable guide (a big if in today’s manipulated world) it means the internal structure of the market is deteriorating much more quickly than the behavior of the Dow and S&P 500 seem to imply.

When stocks in general catch up to the carnage in yesterday’s hot sectors, we’ll get something a lot more extreme than a simple correction. And when that happens the odds of the Fed raising US interest rates drop to zero.

This article is written by John Rubino of Dollarcollapse.com and with his kind permission, Gecko Research has been privileged to publish his work on our website. To find out more about Dollarcollapse.com, please visit:

dollar_collapse